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Quick Picks For Casual Player

It isn’t difficult to present a method that will produce good prices, but it is an exacting task to find such a method that also produces a reasonable winning percentage. Most difficult of all is to develop a price method that avoids extensive runs of consecutive losers. Price and good winning percentage are not kissing cousins.

It also involves a toilsome effort to create a price method that requires only a little time in which to make the selections. In short, it is a job that requires more research than we could accomplish in the limited time at our disposal for such work. Therefore, we have assigned the research to one individual who has devoted a lot of time to checking a basic idea we had in mind.•

Over the years, we have noted that many of the better-priced winners were horses that were very close up at both the first and second calls in their last race. This was the starting point at which our researcher began his work.thoroughbred horse racing

It soon developed that if price was to be the main objective, and if long runs of consecutive losses were to be avoided, certain types of races had to be eliminated from consideration.

For example, added-money races, turf races and steeplechase events proved to be unprofitable. Likewise, horses who won their last start did not show a margin of profit sufficient to warrant their inclusion.

Surprisingly, maidens proved to be profitable when played in conjunction with the basic idea upon which the research was based.

As might have been expected, the date of the last race revealed itself as more important than any other single factor. In short, it was found that 15 days was the most profitable date spread between a horse’s last race and today.

The reader may wonder why 15? Why not seven, or eight, or ten? Fifteen proved to be the best because it allows the trainer a three-day margin in which to find a suitable race beyond 23 days which is generally accepted as the ideal rest period following the last race.

When all tracks are considered, regardless of their class, we find that the highest percentage of winners are horses that started within 12 days.

This means that to take full advantage of this race a trainer must find a race within that period where his horse is eligible for entry. This is not always possible. Research revealed that in a number of instances a suitable race was found within 15 days. So it became clear the highest percentage date of 12 days should be extended by three days.

After extensive study of this problem, we found that where separation is necessary it was better to use a point credit separation than it was to attempt to apply one rigid rule.

We found that five factors (which we’ll outline below) produced better results than could be obtained by laying down one hard and fast separation rule. When each of these factors was given a value of one point, they proved successful in separating contenders.

Price proved troublesome in that frequently a qualified horse went off at short odds. After experimenting with several ideas, we found that the only possible way the player could be sure or receiving 4-1 or higher on his winning selection was to make a price rule part of the qualification for play. Therefore, no horse is played unless its odds are 4-1 or more five minutes before post time.

In order to meet the request for a non-time-consuming method, we had to eliminate pace ratings entirely and depend upon the time in which the winner ran each contender’s last race in tie-breaking situations.

The method we developed is by no means the best way to make thoroughly sound selections. However, it is the best “quick pick” method developed to date.

It is easy to use, isolates a reasonably good percentage of winners at odds of 4-1 or higher, and does avoid unreasonable runs of consecutive losers.

We do not advocate its use by those who are sophisticated handicappers. The method was researched and designed to fill the needs of recreational horseplayers. We present this method with the hope that it will fulfill their needs. Following are the selection rules:

1. Play no added money races, no turf races, no steeplechase events. All other types may be played.

2. First eliminate all horses whose last race was run more than 15 days ago, and all horses that won their last race.

3. Eliminate any non-maiden that has not won in the two years (as shown in its two-year and career box score) or does not show a win in its past performance.

4. In order to qualify, a horse must have been leading, that is running first, at one or both of the first two calls in its last race, and it must have been within one-half length of the leader at the other of the first two calls. For example:

First Call Second Call

30Apr98 1 3h

17Apr98 2 1/2 1

20Mar98 1 1

5. The selection must go off at 4-1 or higher.

If two or more horses qualify under the rules at this point, separate them according to the following point system:thoroughbred horse racing

a. Earned highest speed rating last start: one point.

b. Started on latest date: one point.

c. Faster winner’s time in last start: one point.

d. Entered in highest class most recent race: one point.

e. Finished closest up in top race: one point.

The contender with the highest number of points is the final selection.

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Money Management

We are keenly aware that what one player considers a good winning percentage may not appear very good to another player. Likewise, what one bettor considers good odds may be regarded by another bettor as something less than satisfactory.

In proposing the use of two or more spot play methods for making selections, we have made an effort to strike a middle ground between winning percentages and prices.

Some players prefer a high winning percentage; others strongly favor high prices. Of one thing we may be sure: it is next to impossible to maintain a high percentage of winners at what are generally considered high prices.

Personally, we prefer a compromise. That is, we favor a reasonably good winning percentage with profits that range from moderate to substantial.

Perhaps we should define more clearly what we mean by “moderate” and “substantial” as these terms apply to mutuel prices. In our opinion, a price of 3-1 is an acceptable or moderate price.thoroughbred selections

We know that some handicappers consider anything lower than 10-1 as less than satisfactory. However, in this business we can’t have our cake and eat it too. Therefore, the most logical procedure is to try for a reasonably good winning percentage and good average prices.

Professional horseplayers usually have a set profit goal for the day, and when they attain that goal, they call it a day and leave the track. The recreational player is advised to adopt the same method of play. A logical procedure is to set a daily profit goal of an amount commensurate with the amount of operating capital available to the individual and then to stop play when the first cashing wager attains the desired daily margin of profit.

It is foolish for a person with, say, $100 to shoot for a daily profit of $50. If $100 is all that is available for wagering, then his daily profit objective should be no more than $15 a day. That is because he or she simply does not have sufficient operating capital at their disposal to safely enable them to shoot for a higher daily profit. In fact, they might be wise to select an even more moderate daily profit objective if $100 is all they have available for wagering purposes.

If in this day of inflated costs, $15 dollars profit a day seems too low, then the individual should wait until more operating capital is available which will enable him to safely attempt a greater amount of daily profit.

How should he manage his playing capital in order to sustain the greatest possible margin of safety and at the same time attain his profit objective? In our opinion, close attention should be paid to the relationship between bankroll size, a contender’s odds and the size of the target profit objective.

For example, suppose your first selection for the day is going off at 3-1. If your daily profit objective is $30 a day, you can arrive at the correct amount to wager at odds of 3-1 in order to attain a net profit of $30 by dividing 30 by three. The answer is 10 and $10 is the logical amount to wager.

Or suppose your selection is held at 5-1. Since your profit goal is $30, you arrive at the correct amount to wager by dividing 30 by five. The answer is six and the wager is, therefore, $6.

What does one do if the first selection loses? The amount wagered on the loser becomes part of the original profit goal. So if the daily profit objective was $30 and the lost wager was $6, the profit goal becomes $36, the original $30 profit goal plus the six dollars lost on the previous selection. The amount of the next wager hinges upon the odds at which your selection is held.

If the second selection was held at 3-1, you arrive at the correct amount to wager by dividing 36 by three and the wager is $12. On the other hand if this second selection was held at, say, 6-1 then the wager would be only $6.

Many professionals back their selections on the 1-3 scale win and place. For every dollar wagered to win they bet three dollars to place. Remember, however, that if a player chooses to use the win and place method of wagering, he must have available four times the amount of capital he needs for win bets only.

If you employ the money management plan explained above, remember that the one sure way to keep the wagers within reasonable limits is to avoid excessively short-priced selections. In our own play, we seldom back a horse at less than 3-1. This is because in over 50 years of experience, we have learned that a short-priced horse can lose just as easily as a good-priced selection. There is no such thing as a sure thing in this business, so why take the worst of the odds?

In making use of the following method, the fan who is well grounded in sound handicapping principles will produce better results than the player who knows little or nothing about sound handicapping. Nevertheless, this method is designed so that it can be played mechanically.

The basic principle on which this method is based is a race within the last two starts which offers good evidence that the horse is now ready to turn in a good effort.

Any horse that gained three or more running positions from the pre-stretch call to the finish, or which turned in a front-running effort, is a horse worth following today. This is especially true of horses that made such a gain or front running effort in their next-to-last race, if it was run within the past 35 days.

Therefore, the first step in making a selection is to find a claiming race (other than a maiden claiming race) where a horse gained three or more running positions between the pre-stretch call and the finish in its next-to-last race and lost by no more than 3-1/2 lengths — or in which the horse turned in a front-running effort being defeated by no more than 3-1/2 lengths. Any horse meeting this basic qualification becomes a selection if it meets all of the following requirements:

1. The most recent race must have been run within the past 21 days and the next-to-last race must have been run within the past 35 days.

2. The horse must not be moving up in claiming price today.

3. It must not have finished in-the-money in its top race.

4. If the horse is not dropping in claiming price today, the odds of its second race back must be higher than the odds of its top race.

5. If the horse is dropping $10,000 or more in claiming price today, Rule Four is disregarded, and the horse can qualify if it meets all other requirements.

ELIMINATIONS:

A. Eliminate any qualified horse whose odds were more than 15-1 in both of its top two races.

B. Eliminate any qualified horse that has not finished in-the-money or within 3-1/2 lengths of the winner in at least one of its top three races.

If two or more horses qualify in the same race, play the selection at the highest odds today.

Now take a moment to study the past performances of Maria’s Reward in the sixth race at Sportsman’s Park on March 3, 1998. The mare had raced 17 days ago and her previous race had been run within 35 days (Rule One) . She was not moving up in claiming price today (Rule Two) and she had run out of the money in her most recent race (Rule Three).thoroughbred selections

Rule Four did not apply since she was dropping in claiming price today (see Rule Five) but could have qualified anyway since the odds in her next-to-last race were higher than those in her most recent race. She also qualified easily on both of the elimination rules. As a perfect single qualifier she paid $39.80 to win.

Ten And Two also qualified on all the rules except Rule One because her next-to-last race had not been run within 35 days. Even so, Maria’s Reward at 18-1 was an obvious pick over Ten And Two at 2-1. The only other horse who had raced within 21 days was moving up in claiming price today and was eliminated by Rule Two.

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The Odds On Your Side?

Every racing fan of any real experience knows that the prices their winners pay is of vital importance to their financial success. However, various handicapping writers have caused some confusion on this subject. A few authors have suggested that one should confine their wagers to horses that go postward at no less than 8-1; others have argued that the smart player never backs a horse that is held at odds of more than 4-1. Therefore, some racing fans are confused as to just what they should do about price.

The perfect selection method, of course, is one that produces a good percentage of winners at moderate prices, but which also points out a winner now and then at really high odds. It isn’t easy to find this happy combination.

It’s obvious that every horseplayer needs a high-priced winner now and then in order to help offset the losses incurred during a given period. The need for an occasional longshot winner is obvious because no matter how good their selection method is, or how efficient they may be as a selector, nearly all horseplayers will always back more losers than winners.

So it is clear that you can’t earn a steady profit if all of your winners are low-odds horsesóat least on a flat bet basis, and progression wagering can prove highly dangerous in the hands of an inexperienced operator.free thoroughbred selections picks

The advice that one should stick to selections that go postward at 8-1 or more is mathematically sound, but such a demand limits a player’s wagering action severely. Further, such a requirement will usually result in a long string of consecutive losses, two facts which the average racing fan dislikes.

So is there a truly satisfactory answer to the price problem? We believe there is, but it involves the use of two methods for making a selection.

A brief example will serve to make this point clear. Suppose that your present method had been found to be entirely sound, but the prices paid by the winners are a bit on the low side as compared to the winning percentage.

Under such circumstances, the method will show a small profit. However, in order to earn an adequate return for your effort it is necessary to increase the amount of each wager to a level which may demand more capital than you have available. For instance, if the method shows a yearly net profit of $3,500 on a flat $10.00 wager, one would have to back each selection with a $30.00 wager in order to bring the yearly net up to a worthwhile figure.

The alternative to this scenario is to employ a longshot method in conjunction with one’s regular method of making selections. We’ll be emphasizing two criteria: 1) Make the odds demand for the longshot method 14-1 or more, which will rule out many of the plays the method would normally point out; 2) Find a system, if possible, that will point only a few plays each week at any one track. The latter will prove difficult to accomplish. Hence the odds demand of 14-1 or more is the more logical choice. The angle we’ll examine this month has served us nicely and should prove of help to you.

Several years ago, we noted that some horses that won and paid $30.00 and more followed a distinct odds pattern. We also noticed that most of these horses had moved up in class or claiming price last time out. On the day when we first noticed these factors, there were three high-priced winners at two different tracks. In every instance, the three horses won and paid $30.00 or more. This triggered our curiosity to the point where we could not resist checking back to see whether the same situation have prevailed in the past.

We soon discovered that the same thing had been happening with reasonable frequency in the recent past. But we noticed that when the odds today were less than 10-1, most of the qualified horses finished up the track.

This called for an examination of results charts and past performances for the previous year, and again we found the same pattern repeating itself. This convinced us that some trainers make a practice of raising a horse in class or claiming price one race before they intended to crack down.

We are not prepared to say why trainers sometimes do this; however, it appears to be done in the interest of improving the horse’s odds in its next start. This assumption is based on the fact that too frequently when such horses were held at moderate odds they failed to run in a successful or impressive race.

During the survey period, we watched the class factor to the extent of noting whether or not the horse was dropping in class or claiming price today. We found that in most instances the horse dropped in class or claiming price today. However, in some instances the horse went back for its trying effort at the same price for which it was entered last start, and in a few instances and under peculiar conditions a few of the winners went up in class again today.

This latter situation occurred usually in starter allowance and starter handicap races, where the events were conditioned for horses that had previously been entered for a claiming price. Technically, such horses were moving up from a claiming event into either an allowance or handicap race. In reality, the field was made up of nothing but claiming platers of a given grade.

However, we decided to confine our selections to qualified horses that were not moving up in class again today, accepting only those horses that were re-entered for a price identical to their last entered price and those that were dropping down today. This has caused us to miss some good longshots. Therefore, it is a question you should decide for yourself after making a check of no less than three months.

We have never set an exact rule about the odds between the next-to-last race and the most recent race. It is next to impossible to do so effectively, because when one compares the odds at which a horse was held in its next-to-last race with the odds at which it was held last time out, the figures are relative. For example a horse that was held at even money in its next-to-last race and at odds of 10-1 last time out represents an increase in odds of nine points.

Another horse that went off at 14-1 in its next-to-last race and 28-1 last time out represents and increase of 14 points. In the first example the horse’s odds last time out were 10 times as great as the odds in its next-to-last race, while in the latter example the odds were only twice as much.

Since we demand odds of 14-1 or more today, we do not believe that the exact ratio of the odds in the next-to-last and most recent races should be restricted to any specific figure.

Following are the selection rules to qualify a longshot selection.

1. The horse must have moved up in claiming price $1,000 or more last start if entered in a claiming race, or one full grade or more if it was entered in a non-claiming race in its next-to-last race.

2. The horse must have started at a major track within the past 30 days, and its last race must have been run over a major track if it is running today over a major course.

3. The horse must have finished in the money in its next-to-last race, or it must have been running first, second or third at the stretch call in its next-to-last race, being no more than 3 lengths off the leader at that point.free thoroughbred selections picks

4. The horse’s odds in its most recent race must have been 10-1 or more and they must be at least two times higher than the horse’s odds in its next-to-last race.

5. The horse must not be moving up in class or claiming price today. It must be entered for the same class or at a lower class than its entered class last time out.

The odds today must be 14-1 or higher.

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Frank Lucarelli adds to the win column with Posse Power in Auburn Handicap | Horse Racing

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England 2010

CLARIETTA (GB)

3 b/br f Shamardal – Claxon / Caerleon
Trainer: John Dunlop
Owner: Bluehills Racing Ltd.

Bred to stay 10 furlongs and improve with age, Clarietta did well in her first season; winning a seven-furlong fillies’ maiden at Doncaster on her second start and a good nursery handicap at Newmarket next time out (beating the smart colt Audacity of Hope [Red Ransom]), before running fifth to Pollenator (Motivator) in the strongly contested May Hill H. (Eng-G2) at Doncaster — and third to the current Oaks favorite Timepiece (Zamindar) in the Montrose S. at Newmarket. Clarietta’s dam won the Masaka S. over a mile and Lupe S. over 1 1/4 miles at three, and landed the Premio Lydia Tesio (Ity-G2) over 1 1/4 miles (on heavy ground) at four. She is a daughter of Bulaxie, who also took the Lupe, having won the Fred Darling S. (Eng-G3) on her first start at three. This is very solid family and Clarietta can be expected to add to its success in 2010. She was dull and still “wintry” in her coat when beaten on her seasonal debut at Kempton Park on April 3.horse racing picks

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (USA)

3 b c Elusive Quality – Cara Fantasy (Ire) / Sadler’s Wells
Trainer: John Dunlop
Owners: Windflower Overseas Holdings Ltd.

St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu [Ire]) put this colt firmly in his place in the Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) but I still believe Elusive Pimpernel is the best each-way bet for the Two Thousand Guineas. This is potentially a top class horse — certain to find more improvement at three than many of the colts high on the juvenile rankings last year. A big, strapping son of Elusive Quality, he surprised even those closest to him when making a winning debut at the Newmarket July meeting. He came with a good run from off the pace, to get up for a half-length win over Timely Jazz (Noverre), with Poet’s Voice third and Emerald Commander ((Pivotal) fifth. This was one of the best maiden events seen in England last season, and three of these names fillies the first three places in the Acomb S. (Eng-G3) at York in August. Elusive Pimpernel won again, this time being even more impressive with his off-the-pace style, beating Emerald Commander by a head as Poet’s Voice was a half-length away in third. The latter went on to win the Champagne at Doncaster and finish fourth in the Middle Park at Newmarket (see Awzaan above). Emerald Commander won a listed race at Haydock on his next start, en route to filling second place behind Jan Vermeer (Montjeu [Ire]) in the Criterium International (Fr-G1) at Saint-Cloud in France. This form has worked out so well, and Elusive Pimpernel added to it himself when second in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October. He could not match strides with the winner St Nicholas Abbey, who came home impressively by 3 3/4 lengths, but John Dunlop’s colt was a clear second, 2 1/2 lengths in front of the previously unbeaten Godolphin colt Al Zir (Medaglia d’Oro). Elusive Pimpernel, a half-brother to the Strensall S. (Eng-G3) winner Palavicini, looks a classic prospect indeed. He can still be backed at 20-1 for the Guineas (Stan James). If St Nicholas Abbey is a genuine 2-1 chance, does that make sense? Probably not. Elusive Pimpernel has been entered for the Guineas races at Newmarket and The Curragh, as well as for the Irish Derby (Ire-G1).

FORTE DEI MARMI (GB)

4 b g Selkirk – Frangy / Sadler’s Wells
Trainer: Luca Cumani
Owner: Fittocks Stud

This Luca Cumani-trained and -owned son of Selkirk was not seen on a racecourse after his flop at Sandown Park in July. Going off at 13-8 favorite for a nine-furlong handicap, Forte Dei Marmi was never able to get into the race, and he finished seventh of 12 behind Clerk’s Choice (Bachelor Duke). He owed his favoritism to an impressive win at Goodwood some three weeks earlier, when Forte Dei Marmi came with an explosive run from well off the pace to beat Sandor (Fantastic Light) by a nose. Based on this taking effort on a late seasonal debut, Forte Dei Marmi looked an exciting prospect for the second half of the season. However, he was laid off and has now been gelded. In all probability, his handicap mark (81) is quite lenient. If he drops to 80 or lower, it opens up some great opportunities in handicap company. He will stay 1 1/4 miles.

FAIRY PROMISES (USA)

3 b f Broken Vow – Fairy Glade / Gone West
Trainer: Pat Eddery
Owner: Khalid Abdullah

Trained by Pat Eddery, this three-year-old filly has plenty of scope for improvement in the new season. She ran four times last year, winning a Nottingham maiden (backed from 12-1 to 13-2) before stepping up in class to run fourth behind Fontley (Sadler’s Wells) in a Novices’ stakes at Sandown, and seventh of eight behind Tabassum (Nayef) in the Oh So Sharp S. (Eng-G3) at Newmarket. Going off at 50-1, Fairy Promises showed early speed to lead through the first four furlongs, but tired and was beaten 12 lengths by the winner. She ran better than that margin suggests, and she is likely to make significant improvement this year. Her dam Fairy Glade is an unraced half-sister to Skimming, a dual winner of the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in California (beating Tiznow for his first success there).racing horse

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